Powell’s speech had a temporary impact, but it did not sustain the V-shaped reversal in U.S. Treasury yields. The London lead market closed down 0.57% at $2,180 per ton for the week, as smelters balanced production adjustments while spot prices remained in a discount. Weak consumption and tightening of raw material supply provided stronger support, keeping lead prices stable for today.
Overnight, London lead prices showed cautious and volatile movements, opening at $2,187.5 per ton, reaching a high of $2,193, a low of $2,162, and closing at $2,180, down $12.5 or 0.57%. Trading volume increased by 552 lots to 5,981 lots, and open interest rose by 1,356 lots to 139,104 lots. In the evening, the main Shanghai lead contract (2312) showed a W-shaped oscillation trend, closing at RMB 16,480 per ton, down RMB 20 or 0.12%.
Today’s spot lead price outlook: Powell’s speech did not have a sustained impact, and U.S. Treasury yields experienced a V-shaped reversal. The U.S. dollar index followed suit, rising to a one-week high, which put pressure on risk assets, causing London lead prices to drop cautiously by 0.57% to $2,180. Macro sentiment remains cautious, with a prevailing fear of capital outflows. Coupled with weak fundamentals, lead prices lack upward momentum. The traditional peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries in the downstream market has turned weak, and with the previous high inventories, major manufacturers are primarily focused on depleting their stockpiles. Factors such as refinery maintenance and power restrictions in Yunnan may lead to a reduction in some production capacity, but large smelters in other regions are still increasing output. The supply-side balance remains in a spot price discount due to a mixture of increases and decreases in supply. Fortunately, the tightening of raw material supply and high prices provide strong support. It is expected that spot lead prices will remain stable today.