Recently, the weakening trend of the US dollar has had a positive impact on the base metals market. Overnight, London aluminum prices rebounded from their lows, closing at $2,146 per ton, up $7, representing a 0.33% increase. Trading volume increased by 4,043 lots to 16,430 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,892 lots to 667,904 lots.
China’s asymmetric interest rate cut policy in August has improved market sentiment and also sent signals of stable growth, leading to a gradual recovery in macroeconomic expectations. These factors have played a significant role in supporting the base metals market.
Currently, the aluminum premium levels are rising, and inventories are continuing to decline, both of which support the relatively strong trend in aluminum prices. In addition, domestic ingot levels remain relatively low, indicating that there is unlikely to be a large influx of supply into the market in the short term, which also helps stabilize aluminum prices.
In the spot market, there are overall signs of improvement in trading activity, which have had a positive impact on aluminum prices. Considering these factors, it is expected that aluminum prices will trend upward today.
In summary, the weakening US dollar, the release of signals for stable growth in China, and the improvement in market sentiment have all had a positive impact on the base metals market. Based on these factors, the short-term trend for aluminum prices is relatively strong, and it is expected that aluminum prices will rise today.