The combined pressure of a stronger dollar and profit-taking caused London copper to end a seven-day winning streak last week, closing down 0.56%. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, while market uncertainty surrounding upcoming holidays intensifies, making price trends difficult to predict. Spot copper is likely to decline today.
With the strengthening of the dollar and profit-taking pressure, cautious market sentiment has spread, creating a bearish effect on copper prices. Last week, London copper ended its seven-day rise, trending weaker and closing with a bearish candlestick after fluctuating towards the end of trading. The latest closing price was $9,486 per ton, down $53, a 0.56% decline. Trading volume decreased by 10,641 lots to 17,864 lots, while open interest increased by 3,428 lots to 274,874. On Friday night, Shanghai copper followed the downward trend of the external market, fluctuating weakly during trading. The latest closing price of the most active 2410 contract was 75,480 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan, a 0.38% drop.
As of September 20, the latest inventory of London copper at the London Metal Exchange (LME) stood at 303,350 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons from the previous trading day, down 0.52%.
At 09:01, the most active 2410 contract opened at 75,270 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. Macro market sentiment has cooled noticeably compared to last week, with profit-taking almost across the board in the London non-ferrous metals market. London copper led the decline, dragging down domestic copper prices. A firm rebound in the dollar, combined with miners’ selling behavior and market participants’ preference for profit-taking before the weekend, has dampened market enthusiasm for buying, significantly enhancing risk aversion and putting pressure on copper prices. Additionally, high copper prices have once again suppressed downstream restocking demand, while the upcoming National Day holiday adds to market uncertainty, making price trends harder to predict. Against this backdrop, bearish factors are gradually accumulating, including current demand not being particularly strong, and the rapid price rise may further weaken the generation of new orders. As a result, market participants are generally reluctant to chase higher prices. Considering these factors, copper prices are likely to choose a high-level correction, and spot copper prices are expected to show a downward trend today.