In the early morning session today, stainless steel futures exhibited narrow fluctuations. As of 9:37 AM, the front-month contract 2401 was last traded at 13,610, with the highest at 13,715 and the lowest at 13,560, down 0.07%. On the macroeconomic front, last week’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes were generally cautious, and recent unexpected declines in US inflation, along with a significant slowdown in job growth, have increased the downside risks to the US economy. This led to a simultaneous decline in the US dollar and US bond yields.
In the domestic market, the latest industrial data from China has been weak, raising concerns about market demand. Overnight, the entire non-ferrous metals market experienced a comprehensive decline, and the industrial sentiment continues to be bearish, leading to continued weak and oscillatory movements in stainless steel. Macro sentiment remains weak, and there is an oversupply of nickel, keeping nickel iron prices in a weak position.
Furthermore, due to the expansion of steel mills’ production cuts, stainless steel prices are still under pressure. The weakening of nickel iron prices at the cost end will impact the profits of nickel pig iron, and the pessimistic sentiment prevails in the spot market. The expansion of the downside in stainless steel is also driven by high inventories in stainless steel and nickel iron segments, causing concerns in the industry chain. Actual transactions in the stainless steel spot market are not strong, and with a bearish market sentiment, most businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see approach.
However, in the short term, there are still positive expectations for domestic policies, including favorable factors such as government bonds, real estate financing, and major construction projects. Additionally, positive developments such as the successful meeting between leaders of China and the US have provided some boost to the domestic macroeconomic environment. It is not ruled out that there may be a willingness to rebound after a period of narrow fluctuations in stainless steel. It is expected that narrow fluctuations will dominate the stainless steel market today.