Today, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined from recent highs. As of 15:01 Beijing time, the three-month LME aluminum price was quoted at $2,336 per ton, down $14 per ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day’s settlement price.
In the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the main contract for aluminum (September 2024) opened at ¥19,550 per ton. Throughout the day, the highest price reached was ¥19,670 per ton, and the lowest was ¥19,450 per ton. Yesterday’s settlement price was ¥19,605 per ton, and the contract closed at ¥19,450 per ton, down ¥155 or 0.79%. The total trading volume for the main contract was 1,598,978 lots, a decrease of 321 lots, while the open interest increased by 3,782 lots to 239,417 lots.
Today’s SHFE aluminum prices initially rose but then fell. On Monday, the unexpected rate cut by the People’s Bank of China aimed at stimulating economic growth spurred short-term market optimism, quickly driving aluminum prices up. However, looming uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections, combined with a pullback in U.S. stocks from their highs and a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index, heightened market risk aversion. Consequently, SHFE aluminum prices sharply reversed course in the afternoon, with the price center significantly shifting downwards. The fundamental situation for SHFE aluminum remains weak as well, with inventories accumulating to over a year-high, exerting substantial downward pressure on aluminum prices. Weak end-user demand and low downstream operating rates, along with cautious sentiment in the spot market, further restricted the upside potential for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices face heavy upward pressure and are expected to remain under pressure, likely fluctuating within the range of ¥19,400 to ¥19,600 per ton.
Today’s spot transaction prices in the Changjiang region ranged from ¥19,410 to ¥19,450 per ton, down ¥60, with a discount of ¥90 to ¥50, down ¥20. In the Guangdong region, prices ranged from ¥19,290 to ¥19,340 per ton, down ¥40, with a discount of ¥210 to ¥160, unchanged. In the Shanghai region, prices ranged from ¥19,400 to ¥19,440 per ton, down ¥60, with a discount of ¥100 to ¥60, down ¥20.
Today’s spot aluminum market transactions were steady. Due to increased inventory arrivals over the weekend, suppliers faced significant pressure to offload stocks, resulting in ample discounted supply in the market. Although downstream buyers were stimulated by continued price declines to restock, many remained cautious, leading to insufficient follow-up demand. The sharp price drop in the latter part of the day exacerbated the wait-and-see attitude, overall limiting trading activity.